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The US economy under Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump as president.

May 13, 2016

In 2015 the Fed raised the prime interest rate from 0% to .25% and in 2016 from .25 to .50%, with the expectation to raised it to .75% by the end of 2016. In 2017, with half of the work force low productivity and the other half high productivity, the raised rate can not exceed 1% with impunity during a Trump administration or a Clinton presidency. Products and services may become too expensive for voters to bare.  Hillary’s presidency is predictable, to simplify it’s another 4 years of Obama-like administration, with blacks and Chicano struggling more to survive and whites doing better, the world becomes more socialistic and the US tax payers bail out everyone from the UN to the EU to the ME countries and to you as individuals. America becomes a sick Uncle Sam,and overmilked caw… but slow enough not to panic and colapse!

With Trump presidency there is uncertainty, not the certainty of a slow deterioration of a Clinton presidency but either a fast rise of the US economy or a fast fall of it. A fast fall will be caused by a sudden large tariff, fast climbing Fed rate caused by democrat Yelen during 2017, crucial year being 2018 before she leaves. A “hot” economy unrestrained by Trump, business hiring too many or not hiring enough because of the uncertainty of the economic environment, shaky Trump first year and then getting better with time enough for reelection in 2020.

Clinton presidency is predictable, the economy will stay about the same, the 20 trillion debt will climb to maybe 25 t, the country will be poorer but the rich individuals will get richer, the middle stays about the same and minorities will lose the last few good jobs and a chance for better incomes (except the that enroll in Community Colleges without government incentives). Trump presidency is predictable to change everything, including the economy. The 20 trillion national debt will shrink but not by much, the country will be richer and rich individuals will get ever richer, the middle class will benefit if Trump succeed handling Mexico and China (50%-50% chance the first 2 years, higher chance the next 2 years of his presidency, fair economy for the planet if he gets another term and tame his temperament, but many pitfalls for an inexperienced strong focused man with good values.

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