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Trump’s Prediction of ‘Massive Recession’ Puzzles Economists.

April 5, 2016

I will give a C- to the economic evaluation skill about Recessions, austerity programs, wealth accumulation, etc. to most economists, psychologists, sociologists and businessmen. Why are most of their econo-political decisions so flawed? Most of these “professionals” tend to be pessimists (driven by fear) in their predictions  because they can’t figure out and use the top positive information available only to select individuals who can think outside the box (read my description of the 10% Rule in my PR blog). The problem with economists’ predictions of “massive Recession” or “Great Prosperity” is that they have Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” mentality of the missing variable, giving the human factor very little weight in their analysis of variance of predictive formulas. I spoke about this very subject at UCLA, University of Valencia and University of Rome (my speech last year at the University of Berlin (Humboldt) on cancer described the same problem in Medicine: Why doctors tend to ignore the human factor?

Trump is a businessman running for office. His thinking is doubly flawed, as the thinking of all the other 4 candidates running for president, but he is authentic and expresses his human folly while the other others hide their ignorance that will affect you later when they make flawed decisions. They all ignore the 10% Rule. They don’t understand the human factor that is involved in economics and politics. Ask them to define it and they won’t even know where to start. When Trump predicts “Massive Recession” he plays politics, not economics, while the ignorant economists think he is serious about his prediction. Think about it logically for a change, the messier the US economy is the more votes he gets and the more credit he will receive for fixing the mess. The psychological rule is: Men tend to exaggerate problems so they can fix them.

Let me give you my own example as a businessman. I am one of the few human “professionals” who is right now a great optimist about the economy. There won’t be a massive recession like Trump predicts,  The human factor today is higher than ever before, at least 50% of the variance of predicting success is active right now. Let me expose the 10% Rule hidden today: 300,000 people signed up to buy a Tesla in 2 days! How many will signed up in a year? Millions! Each person gave Alon Musk a $1,000.00 deposit without knowing the delivery date! This means there are a billion “economic optimists winners” out there. I bought Alon Musk’s shares for $150 each 2 months ago, the shares are now $250 each! The 10% Rule says Peaceful Economic Revolution in energy is in the air … and Trump doesn’t want to get it because of politics! Why am I still voting for him? Because the others get it even less. The problem in our educational system that trains these “professionals” is terrible. We don’t teach about the human factor, we are stuck with Smith’s ideas so when Steven Jobs, Zuckerberg, Gates, Besos, the Google brothers or Alon Musk show up on our doorstep and say, “Great economy is coming, join!!  The stupid archaic Smith’s formula still doesn’t make allowance to the human factor called FEELING!

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