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Twitter is trying a 280 words post.

June 26, 2014

Twitter changed from a 140 words tweet to a 280 words two-way tweet, an opportunity for investors to predict scientifically whether Twitter is a real company or a kid’s game. Do they have a future or not? Twitter analysts tell us that Twitter is experimenting with a 280 words message. I know the answer is they are not, they may not even know what I am talking about, but my question may still decide Twitter’s future: Did Costolo and Board randomly selected a control group that was asked to continue to use 140 words per post and an experimental group that was asked to use 280 words per tweet? Did Costolo collect the data for 3 months and published the study in a respectable journal? I doubt that Twitter is doing an experiment. If they are I will change my mind about the future of Twitter’s management.  Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Price winner in 2002 established that trying to improve your economic outcome by doing what you believe in, using common sense, logic, reasoning and rationality tend to come short of cash in the modern market place. Twitter reasoning that it may become successful by adding 140 words to your post is called a fallacy of rationality in my book on investing. Did they do an experiment? I want to point out to all the investors who are now discussion the value of the 280 words tweet to wait for a scientific pilot study before they invest, especially those of you who are rational: You may analyse the move as a great move. I like someone who knows to tell me what kind of study is Twitter doing before it tells the engineers to design a permanent new 280 words platform? I hope Twitter’s decision is not based on Khaneman’s System 1 logic!

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