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Your neglected analytic skills of making risk-less decisions about money.

July 26, 2013

I appreciated the participant’s courage to say it as he felt it. I understood it perfectly when he said, “You wrote two books on investing in 2010 and 2011, Dr. Kinarthy, I know you predicted that AAPL will rise from $80 a share to $500 and even higher, I know I could have tripled my money if I took you seriously, but I couldn’t take you seriously when you said, “Making money in the stock market is easy and simple, but different.” No one in the group did. We weren’t raised that way, Sir, the books that I bought on investing were more interesting to read than your book but impossible to make money with, too much math mixed with lots of writing, it’s what you would call Dr. Kahneman System 2. Your ideas were just too simple, different, too simple to follow to be true. We humans tend to choose what doesn’t work but looks good so we can then fill our lives with explanations.”

Well, George, you were in good company, all 12 participants in my workshop dropped out, the women early, the last man who dropped out on the 12th session invested his money in Harley Davidson and another in A. J. Edward’s or is it Edward Jones. OK, for the fun of it, this is July 2013, let’s look at what I predicted for Apple before, “The share price will slide down close to its powerful “Support level” of $380 but will climb back. I believe it will never again go below $375! Bring up the Tech graph and plot the 50 days moving average. What do you see? You see a sliding linear curve hitting two support levels and inching up very slow over 2 month or so. What does that mean? It means the Apple’s free fall is over. By the end of the year Apple may climb to $600. But, don’t take my word for it. I am a long-term guy, Facebook will climb to $100, but you got to exercise your analytic skills and wait….

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