I retired as an American professor of psychology in 1998. I became an investor in 2000 because a professor’s pension was not enough for what I wanted to do the next 30 years. I wrote 2 books on the psychology of investing because I discovered that many of the rules of investing learned in school were false. Many rules worked better for big investors than for small investors. For example, Mr. Bufett, the most successful investor in history said once that “Diversity was not a good rule to use for an investor who knows well how to pick winning stocks.” I was that kind of investor because good psychologists can always analyse CEOs and pick up the best CEO in Wall Street! So, I limited my picks of companies to maximum 10 companies that had super-CEO’s. In my book I called 90% of all CEO’s the “Garden variety that was plucked of the golf course.” I avoided them like a plague. Some of the super -CEOs that I adopted were Jobs, Page, Brin, Besos, Zukerberg and Musk. Than I discovered that not only Diversity was a bad rule for smart investors, I also discovered that Liquidity was a good rule only for the economy but a bad rule for the individual investors who wanted to maximize his income. Who doesn’t want that? As a psychologist I found out that many investors unconsciously wanted to lose money! Many used Kahneman’s System One to pick stocks, a disaster! That did it for me because System Two was MUCH better. So, I called my broker and said, “From now on I would like you to only execute all my orders to buy or sell stocks without any warning, advice or comment, please! I became more successful, develop bigger self-esteem and more self-confidence how to handle funds (I consider myself today just as good as Sue Orman, or even better).
The following suggestions will not work for most investors so please don’t follow my suggestions unless you are well-trained in my system and have followed my model since 2009 when my first book came out! The bull market in on: That means that BLASH in on (BLASH means buy low and sell high). That means that i have to improve my system of decision-making process that will work like magic: Rule 1) I have to trust that Trump as a CEO of the country can earn for me a lot of money, if I can really do BLASH. Rule 2) I have to close all my savings account and open one investment account. The mentality of getting 1-3% per year interest for my money got to go. I must replace it with a mentality of getting 10% to 30% capital gain on my money. Rule 3) The CEO is always more important to my capital gains that any other variable in the formula of success. Right now I consider Alon Musk as the best potential CEO in the world. I am analysing his personality and his 3 companies as if it’s my next 3 PhDs. I am more than 100% serious about his stardom. Rule 4) The zeitgeist is ripe for a bull market because of 2 reasons: Obama took the US economy down, close to a throw-away status, and there is nowhere to go but up. The wisdom of half the American voters saved us from Hillary’s poor skills of decision-making. Trump has the right ideas for a great economy! If you were a leftist you would have probably stopped reading this posting a while ego. If so, start questioning your economic values! Learn to make more money, dude. Good luck to every one.
Up in the short run and down in the long run. Being a psychologist investor my predictions are based on rules of behavior. My basic rules (for myself only) are:
The rule of Americanism: The US beats the world in making money in NY because we have stability through a constitutional system. For example, 60% of Americans are in the stock market, 3 times more than Germans. We believe strongly in our economic future. We are optimists, the Europeans are pessimists.
The rule of elections: The Fed chief Yellen is a democrat. She will keep fed rates low for Clinton and raise them for Trump. This unconscious move may backfire. If Trump wins the economy takes off, with Hillary it’s not that bad either. The long run looks good for the US. Patient investors who are independent mentally get rich.
The rule of volatility: It’s a “YOYO” market between now and November 8, depending on who is winning. I “sell when high.” Apple at $115 is my good example for selling for profit. The long run planning run shift with Trump towards energy stocks, especially with Elon Mask’s 3 companies.
Let’s cut all the crap and get to the bottom of it: Trump is a capitalist right-winger who wants AAPL and all the other American companies in Europe to come home. The European Union is a socialist authoritarian left winger entity that sees all American companies in Europe as cash cows to exploit and wants AAPL and all other American companies to stay where they are told to stay by Brussels and continue to be milked 24/7. AAPL in Europe is a smart “cow” that decided to move around from pasture to pasture to avoid getting milked too often. The EU, although it likes to think of itself as borderless for refugees, it restrict the movements when it comes to cash laden American cows.
It is interesting to realize that everything in economics is decided by political orientation of Left vs. Right! If leftist authoritarian Hillary gets elected president of the United States, AAPL will lose much cash in Europe. She will side with Brussels and say to AAPL, “Sorry AAPL, you are an American cow but I am ordering you to let the hungry European to milk you, after all it takes a village to raise a child. We have a tradition of democratic presidents saving Europe from itself. We are all globalists.” If rightist egalitarian Trump gets elected president of the United States, AAPL will save a lot of cash in Europe and America. He will side with the American people and tell AAPL to come home, “Sorry Apple, you are an American cow and I am asking you to come home. Let the hungry Europeans milk their miserable socialist cows that don’t produce much milk. We need American companies to come home so we can balance our budget. The EU will not reduce our 20 trillion dollars debt. We will.
AAPL replied: “Mr. president, we will come back home if you fix the American tax-pasture that Obama destroyed by stupid spending.” (I hope you the reader got my analogy. Cash cows are American companies paying taxes. A good pasture is when the tax rate for business is cut by 50% for AAPL and others. “Political orientation is everything” means that the leftist household will save and spend foolish and the rightist household will invest and buy smart (There are exceptions to every rule).
I write this article because as a smart but uninformed immigrant I wasnt’t the fellow who knew what I was doing. I should have opened a Roth-IRA and put my $5,000 a year in Google or Apple in the 80tis instead in a Mutual Fund. Then, I wasn that independent in my thinking either. I got to the USA in 1960 and I was ready for good financial action only in 2000, 40 years later. Why? Because the 10% rules (find them) that lead to wealth were not known to me and instead I used for 40 years the common rules that most people use that lead to less than optimal retirement. I didn’t even know the difference between IRA and Roth IRA until I took my mind in my hand and shook it, “Hey, you will work for me and not just for yourself. Don’t ever be complacent about the 10% Rule ever again.” There are about 10 great ways to get rich for those who start with a steady Job at 30, but the Roth-IRA is the best way to start the business up even at 50! All you have to do for the next 15 years is buy the one and only company that has the one and only CEO that really works. In the past there was a succession of these CEO’s; Besos, Jobs, Gates, Zuckerberg, Page, Brin, today there is only one CEO worth your retirement money, you surely know who it is and if you don’t, get to work, in the business of retirement in wealth don’t listen to anyone but your smart and informed self!
In 2015 the Fed raised the prime interest rate from 0% to .25% and in 2016 from .25 to .50%, with the expectation to raised it to .75% by the end of 2016. In 2017, with half of the work force low productivity and the other half high productivity, the raised rate can not exceed 1% with impunity during a Trump administration or a Clinton presidency. Products and services may become too expensive for voters to bare. Hillary’s presidency is predictable, to simplify it’s another 4 years of Obama-like administration, with blacks and Chicano struggling more to survive and whites doing better, the world becomes more socialistic and the US tax payers bail out everyone from the UN to the EU to the ME countries and to you as individuals. America becomes a sick Uncle Sam,and overmilked caw… but slow enough not to panic and colapse!
With Trump presidency there is uncertainty, not the certainty of a slow deterioration of a Clinton presidency but either a fast rise of the US economy or a fast fall of it. A fast fall will be caused by a sudden large tariff, fast climbing Fed rate caused by democrat Yelen during 2017, crucial year being 2018 before she leaves. A “hot” economy unrestrained by Trump, business hiring too many or not hiring enough because of the uncertainty of the economic environment, shaky Trump first year and then getting better with time enough for reelection in 2020.
Clinton presidency is predictable, the economy will stay about the same, the 20 trillion debt will climb to maybe 25 t, the country will be poorer but the rich individuals will get richer, the middle stays about the same and minorities will lose the last few good jobs and a chance for better incomes (except the that enroll in Community Colleges without government incentives). Trump presidency is predictable to change everything, including the economy. The 20 trillion national debt will shrink but not by much, the country will be richer and rich individuals will get ever richer, the middle class will benefit if Trump succeed handling Mexico and China (50%-50% chance the first 2 years, higher chance the next 2 years of his presidency, fair economy for the planet if he gets another term and tame his temperament, but many pitfalls for an inexperienced strong focused man with good values.
Obama is leaving after 8 years as president. I think during his administration, the rich got richer (the stock market doubled), the middle class stayed about the same, the lower class got poorer, especially minorities, the U.S. economy got worse for our children and the world is in deep sh…t. During Hillary’s administration (if she gets in) the rich will retain their wealth, the middle class will retain their standard of living, the poor will get even poorer, the U.S. economy will survive OK while the world will suffer a lot from terrorism and socialism. During a Trump administration (he may win) the rich will get richer, the middle class will get a bit richer and the lower class will do better but not by much, the U.S. will be an incredible leader and the world will assert its independence from socialism and oppression.
“We’ve talked about oil,” T.Boone Pickens said, adding that “I think Trump knows what to do to improve the nation’s energy policy.”
T. Boone Pickens know about oil. The price at the pump is going up during the in-coming Trump administration (If you still think that another Clinton can win the White House you need to improve your decision-making process, the probability is <1%) . The cost of a barrel of oil will double in 2017. The big winners are Tesla and Solar City. This scenario is a one in a million opportunity for energy winners. You can get energy from wind, geysers, water flow, underground oil, coal, the sun and nuclear. You would think that it's complicated but it's not. All these sources are secondary and not sustainable in the long run. Coal and oil pollutes, the rest are week, except for sun energy relaying on technology to run things. Trump would love the cheap clean energy the sun produces and he will handle the special interests.