I write this article because as a smart but uninformed immigrant I wasnt’t the fellow who knew what I was doing. I should have opened a Roth-IRA and put my $5,000 a year in Google or Apple in the 80tis instead in a Mutual Fund. Then, I wasn that independent in my thinking either. I got to the USA in 1960 and I was ready for good financial action only in 2000, 40 years later. Why? Because the 10% rules (find them) that lead to wealth were not known to me and instead I used for 40 years the common rules that most people use that lead to less than optimal retirement. I didn’t even know the difference between IRA and Roth IRA until I took my mind in my hand and shook it, “Hey, you will work for me and not just for yourself. Don’t ever be complacent about the 10% Rule ever again.” There are about 10 great ways to get rich for those who start with a steady Job at 30, but the Roth-IRA is the best way to start the business up even at 50! All you have to do for the next 15 years is buy the one and only company that has the one and only CEO that really works. In the past there was a succession of these CEO’s; Besos, Jobs, Gates, Zuckerberg, Page, Brin, today there is only one CEO worth your retirement money, you surely know who it is and if you don’t, get to work, in the business of retirement in wealth don’t listen to anyone but your smart and informed self!
In 2015 the Fed raised the prime interest rate from 0% to .25% and in 2016 from .25 to .50%, with the expectation to raised it to .75% by the end of 2016. In 2017, with half of the work force low productivity and the other half high productivity, the raised rate can not exceed 1% with impunity during a Trump administration or a Clinton presidency. Products and services may become too expensive for voters to bare. Hillary’s presidency is predictable, to simplify it’s another 4 years of Obama-like administration, with blacks and Chicano struggling more to survive and whites doing better, the world becomes more socialistic and the US tax payers bail out everyone from the UN to the EU to the ME countries and to you as individuals. America becomes a sick Uncle Sam,and overmilked caw… but slow enough not to panic and colapse!
With Trump presidency there is uncertainty, not the certainty of a slow deterioration of a Clinton presidency but either a fast rise of the US economy or a fast fall of it. A fast fall will be caused by a sudden large tariff, fast climbing Fed rate caused by democrat Yelen during 2017, crucial year being 2018 before she leaves. A “hot” economy unrestrained by Trump, business hiring too many or not hiring enough because of the uncertainty of the economic environment, shaky Trump first year and then getting better with time enough for reelection in 2020.
Clinton presidency is predictable, the economy will stay about the same, the 20 trillion debt will climb to maybe 25 t, the country will be poorer but the rich individuals will get richer, the middle stays about the same and minorities will lose the last few good jobs and a chance for better incomes (except the that enroll in Community Colleges without government incentives). Trump presidency is predictable to change everything, including the economy. The 20 trillion national debt will shrink but not by much, the country will be richer and rich individuals will get ever richer, the middle class will benefit if Trump succeed handling Mexico and China (50%-50% chance the first 2 years, higher chance the next 2 years of his presidency, fair economy for the planet if he gets another term and tame his temperament, but many pitfalls for an inexperienced strong focused man with good values.
Obama is leaving after 8 years as president. I think during his administration, the rich got richer (the stock market doubled), the middle class stayed about the same, the lower class got poorer, especially minorities, the U.S. economy got worse for our children and the world is in deep sh…t. During Hillary’s administration (if she gets in) the rich will retain their wealth, the middle class will retain their standard of living, the poor will get even poorer, the U.S. economy will survive OK while the world will suffer a lot from terrorism and socialism. During a Trump administration (he may win) the rich will get richer, the middle class will get a bit richer and the lower class will do better but not by much, the U.S. will be an incredible leader and the world will assert its independence from socialism and oppression.
“We’ve talked about oil,” T.Boone Pickens said, adding that “I think Trump knows what to do to improve the nation’s energy policy.”
T. Boone Pickens know about oil. The price at the pump is going up during the in-coming Trump administration (If you still think that another Clinton can win the White House you need to improve your decision-making process, the probability is <1%) . The cost of a barrel of oil will double in 2017. The big winners are Tesla and Solar City. This scenario is a one in a million opportunity for energy winners. You can get energy from wind, geysers, water flow, underground oil, coal, the sun and nuclear. You would think that it's complicated but it's not. All these sources are secondary and not sustainable in the long run. Coal and oil pollutes, the rest are week, except for sun energy relaying on technology to run things. Trump would love the cheap clean energy the sun produces and he will handle the special interests.
FTA: With the right president it would be good, with the wrong president it would be bad. David Autor, an MIT economist, concluded that US free trade with China lost almost 3 million US jobs in about 12 years, 9 of these years during the Bush administration and 3 during the Obama administration. He writes, “That wouldn’t have been terrible if the American workers who lost their jobs to the Chinese found American jobs in other sectors of the economy.” (Bloomberg Business, April 4, Page 7).
There are about 5000 community colleges in the United States training American workers in a 100,000 certified occupations. A signed order by president Bush or president Obama for financial assistance for counseling and retraining of these 3 million workers who lost their jobs would have provided certified occupations that the unemployed would love to do because they would fit and choose them and would pay more than the jobs they lost. The cost would be cheap, the economy would benefit, the treasury would save money and the free trade agreement would be praised. What did Bush and Obama do for the 3 million fired workers, especially Obama because many of the unemployed were black Americans who voted for him twice!
Enrolling in a community college, taking an occupational preference test, graduating with a certificate and getting a decent job is not a rocket science, yet neither Obama nor Bush thought of it. If Trump becomes president, do you think he will think of it? I doubt it. The solution is too simple and elegant for presidents to think about. I hope that I am wrong about Trump because I will vote for him as the lesser of 3 evils (Hillary, Sanders and Kasich) in case he is smarter about Trade agreements than Bush or Obama were. My God, life could be so much better with good incomes for minorities, why are we voting for dummy presidents twice? Next time you suffer for 8+8 years without decent and interesting work don’t blame your presidents. They never heard of community colleges! They were too busy hiring Harvard graduates to attend useless committees in Washington! No, no, I’m not cynical.
absolutely There are 2 basic ways to analyse whether Elon Musk can deliver his Model 3 on time? No, he can’t, or, yes, he can. There are 2 basic ways to analyse whether a million people will get their Model 3 car by 2018? No, they won’t, or, yes, they will. In fact, there are two fundamental personalities in human beings that determine how people look at everything (some variations), including how they look at the first Tesla EV (Actually how they look at everything, including he first Ford Model T, the first Apple Company that kicked out Steven Jobs by “mistake” of judgment by Board of skeptics, the first black president of “Artzot Habrit” or “Countries of the Covenant,” what optimistic insightful Jews or gentiles call the United States. Let’s take the Tesla Model 3 as an example: These 2 personalities of people are an awesome dichotomy between “breaks” thinkers and “accelerator” thinkers, those that think the Tesla operation should slow down to succeed and those that are impressed by speed of 0-60 in 5 seconds. The best way that I can teach my readers about their personalities, as you are getting smarter every day you read my blogs, is by listing the dichotomies. Here are these 2 incredible ways humans look at everything: Skeptic vs. hopeful, those that say “No, Elon can’t deliver, CEO’s are not that powerful, there are too many unforseen obstacles,” and the hopefuls who say “Yes, if anyone can deliver its Elon Musk, he is a divine CEO, second to none, one in a million who can manage well Space X, Tesla and Solar city combined, a person who came from South Africa 15 years ago with $10 in his pocket and today he is sitting on 10 billion dollars! Let me list the rest of the adjectives in the dichotomy and I want you to find your self on the list and create a balance in your personality as needed: Here they are: A CEO is indispensable, the main reason you should buy a company’s shares is the CEO! vs. CEO’s are dispensable, if not Steve Jobs there will be someone else, if not Musk there will be someone else. Pessimist vs. optimist, left thinking vs. right thinking, liberal vs. Conservative, saver vs. investor, austerity program oriented vs. profit oriented, socialist vs. capitalist, evaluate things through fear vs. evaluate things through anger, private vs. public, open border believer vs. close border believer, wall vs no wall, multicultural vs. one cultural,” a nationalist vs. internationalist, paternalistic attitue vs. willing to help but with conditions, spread the wealth vs. accumulate the wealth for yourself,family is sacred vs. family is not sacred, and so on.
My opinion: I am an optimist when it comes to Tesla cars and Tesla shares in the long ran. My reasons are, 1) Elon Musk is indispensable, and 2) The world transformation from carbon fuel to clean “sun fuel” is revolutionary, a most powerful zeitgeist!
There are profound differences between the way I analyse stocks and the way most investors analyse stocks. I win, win, win. I leave the risky rules of economic analysis of market trends to others. I am a retired psychologist and I use rules of psychological analysis of market trends instead. When a single share of Tesla hit the support level at $148 about two months ago, I activated a BLASH System (Buy Low And Sell High). I followed a Piaget’s reversibility analysis within the framework of knowing the personality of the CEO.
The purpose of this posting is not to teach the rules of psychological analysis of market trends. That would take a whole semester! The purpose of this posting is to let my readers know that investing using psychology may be very profitable for people who know psychology more than they understand economics. There are about a 100 rules directly involved in psychological analysis of markets, CEO decisions, etc. I used a few in deciding to sign up for a Tesla car and about buying Tesla share, 1) Support level of $148, 2) Pattern of high/low fluctuations, 3) CEO variables ( Founder, IQ, Criterion Validity, facts, etc.), 4) Analysis of validity and sustainability of energy transformation from Earth to Sun), 5) The progress of the Nevada factory, 6) The feeble EV competition, and 7) The story of Tesla, Model 3!