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My economic views of Obama, Hillary and Trump, one fact, two predictions.

May 4, 2016

Obama is leaving after 8 years as president. I think during his administration, the rich got richer (the stock market doubled), the middle class stayed about the same, the lower class got poorer, especially minorities, the U.S. economy got worse for our children and the world is in deep sh…t. During Hillary’s administration (if she gets in) the rich will retain their wealth, the middle class will retain their standard of living, the poor will get even poorer, the U.S. economy will survive OK while the world will suffer a lot from terrorism and socialism.  During a Trump administration (he may win) the rich will get richer, the middle class will get a bit richer and the lower class will do better but not by much, the U.S. will be an incredible leader  and the world will assert its independence from socialism and oppression.

Energy at the crossroads with Trump!

April 28, 2016

“We’ve talked about oil,”  T.Boone Pickens said, adding that “I think Trump knows what to do to improve the nation’s energy policy.”

T. Boone Pickens know about oil. The price at the pump is going up during the in-coming Trump administration (If you still think that another Clinton can win the White House you need to improve your decision-making process, the probability is <1%) . The cost of a barrel of oil will double in 2017. The big winners are Tesla and Solar City. This scenario is a one in a million opportunity for energy winners. You can get energy from wind, geysers, water flow, underground oil, coal, the sun and nuclear. You would think that it's complicated but it's not. All these sources are secondary and not sustainable in the long run. Coal and oil pollutes, the rest are week, except for sun energy relaying on technology to run things. Trump would love the cheap clean energy the sun produces and he will handle the special interests.

Free Trade is a Double Edged Sword.

April 18, 2016

FTA: With the right president it would be good, with the wrong president it would be bad. David Autor, an MIT economist, concluded that US free trade with China lost almost 3 million US jobs in about 12 years, 9 of these years during the Bush administration and 3 during the Obama administration. He writes, “That wouldn’t have been terrible if the American workers who lost their jobs to the Chinese found American jobs in other sectors of the economy.” (Bloomberg Business, April 4, Page 7).

They didn’t.

There are about 5000 community colleges in the United States training American workers in a 100,000 certified occupations. A signed order by president Bush or president Obama for financial assistance for counseling and retraining of these 3 million workers who lost their jobs would have provided certified occupations that the unemployed would love to do because they would fit and choose them and would pay more than the jobs they lost. The cost would be cheap, the economy would benefit, the treasury would save money and the free trade agreement would be praised. What did Bush and Obama do for the 3 million fired workers, especially Obama because many of the unemployed were black Americans who voted for him twice!

Enrolling in a community college, taking an occupational preference test, graduating with a certificate and getting a decent job is not a rocket science, yet neither Obama nor Bush thought of it. If Trump becomes president, do you think he will think of it? I doubt it. The solution is too simple and elegant for presidents to think about. I hope that I am wrong about Trump because I will vote for him as the lesser of 3 evils (Hillary, Sanders and Kasich) in case he is smarter about Trade agreements than Bush or Obama were. My God, life could be so much better with good incomes for minorities, why are we voting for dummy presidents twice? Next time you suffer for 8+8 years without decent and interesting work don’t blame your presidents. They never heard of community colleges! They were too busy hiring Harvard graduates to attend useless committees in Washington! No, no, I’m not cynical.

Tesla Model 3, Yes or No? And more stuff…

April 9, 2016

absolutely There are 2 basic ways to analyse whether Elon Musk can deliver his Model 3 on time? No, he can’t, or,  yes, he can.  There are 2 basic ways to analyse whether a million people will get their Model 3 car by 2018? No, they won’t, or,  yes, they will. In fact, there are two fundamental personalities in human beings that determine how people look at everything (some variations), including how they look at the first Tesla EV (Actually how they look at everything, including he first Ford Model T, the first Apple Company that kicked out Steven Jobs by “mistake” of judgment by Board of skeptics, the first black president of  “Artzot Habrit” or “Countries of the Covenant,” what optimistic insightful Jews or gentiles call the United States. Let’s take the Tesla Model 3 as an example: These 2 personalities of people are an awesome dichotomy between “breaks” thinkers and “accelerator” thinkers, those that think the Tesla operation should slow down to succeed and those that are impressed by speed of 0-60 in 5 seconds. The best way that I can teach my readers about their personalities, as you are getting smarter every day you read my blogs, is by listing the dichotomies. Here are these 2 incredible ways humans look at everything: Skeptic vs. hopeful, those that say “No, Elon can’t deliver, CEO’s are not that powerful, there are too many unforseen obstacles,” and the hopefuls who say “Yes, if anyone can deliver its Elon Musk, he is a divine CEO, second to none, one in a million who can manage well Space X, Tesla and Solar city combined, a person who came from South Africa 15 years ago with $10 in his pocket and today he is sitting on 10 billion dollars! Let me list the rest of the adjectives in the dichotomy and I want you to find your self on the list and create a balance in your personality as needed: Here they are: A CEO is indispensable, the main reason you should buy a company’s shares is the CEO! vs. CEO’s are dispensable, if not Steve Jobs there will be someone else, if not Musk there will be someone else. Pessimist vs. optimist, left thinking vs. right thinking, liberal vs. Conservative, saver vs. investor, austerity program oriented vs. profit oriented, socialist vs. capitalist, evaluate things through fear vs. evaluate things through anger, private vs. public, open border believer vs. close border believer, wall vs no wall, multicultural vs. one cultural,” a nationalist  vs. internationalist, paternalistic attitue vs. willing to help but with conditions, spread the wealth vs. accumulate the wealth for yourself,family is sacred vs. family is not sacred, and so on.

My opinion: I am an optimist when it comes to Tesla cars and Tesla shares in the long ran. My reasons are, 1) Elon Musk is indispensable, and 2) The world transformation from carbon fuel to clean “sun fuel” is revolutionary, a most powerful zeitgeist!

The Elon Musk story: A $100 rise in a single Tesla share price within the last few months!!

April 6, 2016

There are profound differences between the way I analyse stocks and the way most investors analyse stocks. I win, win, win. I leave the risky rules of economic analysis of market trends to others. I am a retired psychologist and I use rules of psychological analysis of market trends instead.  When a single share of Tesla hit the support level at $148  about two months ago, I activated a  BLASH System (Buy Low And Sell High). I followed a Piaget’s reversibility analysis within the framework of knowing the personality of the CEO.

The purpose of this posting is not to teach the rules of psychological analysis of market trends. That would take a whole semester! The purpose of this posting is to let my readers know that investing using psychology may be very profitable for people who know psychology more than they understand economics. There are about a 100 rules directly involved in psychological analysis of markets, CEO decisions, etc. I used a few in deciding to sign up for a Tesla car and about buying Tesla share, 1) Support level of $148, 2) Pattern of high/low fluctuations, 3) CEO variables ( Founder, IQ, Criterion Validity, facts, etc.), 4) Analysis of validity and sustainability of energy transformation from Earth to Sun), 5) The progress of the Nevada factory, 6) The feeble EV competition, and 7) The story of Tesla, Model 3!

 

Trump’s Prediction of ‘Massive Recession’ Puzzles Economists.

April 5, 2016

I will give a C- to the economic evaluation skill about Recessions, austerity programs, wealth accumulation, etc. to most economists, psychologists, sociologists and businessmen. Why are most of their econo-political decisions so flawed? Most of these “professionals” tend to be pessimists (driven by fear) in their predictions  because they can’t figure out and use the top positive information available only to select individuals who can think outside the box (read my description of the 10% Rule in my PR blog). The problem with economists’ predictions of “massive Recession” or “Great Prosperity” is that they have Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” mentality of the missing variable, giving the human factor very little weight in their analysis of variance of predictive formulas. I spoke about this very subject at UCLA, University of Valencia and University of Rome (my speech last year at the University of Berlin (Humboldt) on cancer described the same problem in Medicine: Why doctors tend to ignore the human factor?

Trump is a businessman running for office. His thinking is doubly flawed, as the thinking of all the other 4 candidates running for president, but he is authentic and expresses his human folly while the other others hide their ignorance that will affect you later when they make flawed decisions. They all ignore the 10% Rule. They don’t understand the human factor that is involved in economics and politics. Ask them to define it and they won’t even know where to start. When Trump predicts “Massive Recession” he plays politics, not economics, while the ignorant economists think he is serious about his prediction. Think about it logically for a change, the messier the US economy is the more votes he gets and the more credit he will receive for fixing the mess. The psychological rule is: Men tend to exaggerate problems so they can fix them.

Let me give you my own example as a businessman. I am one of the few human “professionals” who is right now a great optimist about the economy. There won’t be a massive recession like Trump predicts,  The human factor today is higher than ever before, at least 50% of the variance of predicting success is active right now. Let me expose the 10% Rule hidden today: 300,000 people signed up to buy a Tesla in 2 days! How many will signed up in a year? Millions! Each person gave Alon Musk a $1,000.00 deposit without knowing the delivery date! This means there are a billion “economic optimists winners” out there. I bought Alon Musk’s shares for $150 each 2 months ago, the shares are now $250 each! The 10% Rule says Peaceful Economic Revolution in energy is in the air … and Trump doesn’t want to get it because of politics! Why am I still voting for him? Because the others get it even less. The problem in our educational system that trains these “professionals” is terrible. We don’t teach about the human factor, we are stuck with Smith’s ideas so when Steven Jobs, Zuckerberg, Gates, Besos, the Google brothers or Alon Musk show up on our doorstep and say, “Great economy is coming, join!!  The stupid archaic Smith’s formula still doesn’t make allowance to the human factor called FEELING!

Long-term use of abiraterone acetate at 250 mg/d: is this really viable?

March 12, 2016

stating that Dr. Potter has a PhD and not an MD makes this article biased. I will be the first one not to “like” it. Dr. Elior Kinarthy.

THE "NEW" PROSTATE CANCER INFOLINK

It has been suggested that, after an initial “loading dose” for a period of time, abiraterone acetate could potentially be used to treat metastatic, castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) at a much lower daily maintenance dose than that currently approved.

In two messages left on this site (on February 2 and on February 4, 2012), Prof. Gerry Potter (one of the original developers of abiraterone acetate) has stated his opinion that, after initial treatment with a “loading dose” of abiraterone acetate at 1,000 mg/d for a period of 1 month, many patients could potentially be managed with a much lower daily (maintenance) dose of this agent at just 250 mg/d.

We have the greatest respect for Dr. Potter as a medicinal chemist, and we feel very sure that his opinion is based on data available to him that gives him confidence in this clinical strategy … but, we feel it is important to…

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