Up in the short run and down in the long run. Being a psychologist investor my predictions are based on rules of behavior. My basic rules (for myself only) are:
The rule of Americanism: The US beats the world in making money in NY because we have stability through a constitutional system. For example, 60% of Americans are in the stock market, 3 times more than Germans. We believe strongly in our economic future. We are optimists, the Europeans are pessimists.
The rule of elections: The Fed chief Yellen is a democrat. She will keep fed rates low for Clinton and raise them for Trump. This unconscious move may backfire. If Trump wins the economy takes off, with Hillary it’s not that bad either. The long run looks good for the US. Patient investors who are independent mentally get rich.
The rule of volatility: It’s a “YOYO” market between now and November 8, depending on who is winning. I “sell when high.” Apple at $115 is my good example for selling for profit. The long run planning run shift with Trump towards energy stocks, especially with Elon Mask’s 3 companies.
Let’s cut all the crap and get to the bottom of it: Trump is a capitalist right-winger who wants AAPL and all the other American companies in Europe to come home. The European Union is a socialist authoritarian left winger entity that sees all American companies in Europe as cash cows to exploit and wants AAPL and all other American companies to stay where they are told to stay by Brussels and continue to be milked 24/7. AAPL in Europe is a smart “cow” that decided to move around from pasture to pasture to avoid getting milked too often. The EU, although it likes to think of itself as borderless for refugees, it restrict the movements when it comes to cash laden American cows.
It is interesting to realize that everything in economics is decided by political orientation of Left vs. Right! If leftist authoritarian Hillary gets elected president of the United States, AAPL will lose much cash in Europe. She will side with Brussels and say to AAPL, “Sorry AAPL, you are an American cow but I am ordering you to let the hungry European to milk you, after all it takes a village to raise a child. We have a tradition of democratic presidents saving Europe from itself. We are all globalists.” If rightist egalitarian Trump gets elected president of the United States, AAPL will save a lot of cash in Europe and America. He will side with the American people and tell AAPL to come home, “Sorry Apple, you are an American cow and I am asking you to come home. Let the hungry Europeans milk their miserable socialist cows that don’t produce much milk. We need American companies to come home so we can balance our budget. The EU will not reduce our 20 trillion dollars debt. We will.
AAPL replied: “Mr. president, we will come back home if you fix the American tax-pasture that Obama destroyed by stupid spending.” (I hope you the reader got my analogy. Cash cows are American companies paying taxes. A good pasture is when the tax rate for business is cut by 50% for AAPL and others. “Political orientation is everything” means that the leftist household will save and spend foolish and the rightist household will invest and buy smart (There are exceptions to every rule).
I write this article because as a smart but uninformed immigrant I wasnt’t the fellow who knew what I was doing. I should have opened a Roth-IRA and put my $5,000 a year in Google or Apple in the 80tis instead in a Mutual Fund. Then, I wasn that independent in my thinking either. I got to the USA in 1960 and I was ready for good financial action only in 2000, 40 years later. Why? Because the 10% rules (find them) that lead to wealth were not known to me and instead I used for 40 years the common rules that most people use that lead to less than optimal retirement. I didn’t even know the difference between IRA and Roth IRA until I took my mind in my hand and shook it, “Hey, you will work for me and not just for yourself. Don’t ever be complacent about the 10% Rule ever again.” There are about 10 great ways to get rich for those who start with a steady Job at 30, but the Roth-IRA is the best way to start the business up even at 50! All you have to do for the next 15 years is buy the one and only company that has the one and only CEO that really works. In the past there was a succession of these CEO’s; Besos, Jobs, Gates, Zuckerberg, Page, Brin, today there is only one CEO worth your retirement money, you surely know who it is and if you don’t, get to work, in the business of retirement in wealth don’t listen to anyone but your smart and informed self!
In 2015 the Fed raised the prime interest rate from 0% to .25% and in 2016 from .25 to .50%, with the expectation to raised it to .75% by the end of 2016. In 2017, with half of the work force low productivity and the other half high productivity, the raised rate can not exceed 1% with impunity during a Trump administration or a Clinton presidency. Products and services may become too expensive for voters to bare. Hillary’s presidency is predictable, to simplify it’s another 4 years of Obama-like administration, with blacks and Chicano struggling more to survive and whites doing better, the world becomes more socialistic and the US tax payers bail out everyone from the UN to the EU to the ME countries and to you as individuals. America becomes a sick Uncle Sam,and overmilked caw… but slow enough not to panic and colapse!
With Trump presidency there is uncertainty, not the certainty of a slow deterioration of a Clinton presidency but either a fast rise of the US economy or a fast fall of it. A fast fall will be caused by a sudden large tariff, fast climbing Fed rate caused by democrat Yelen during 2017, crucial year being 2018 before she leaves. A “hot” economy unrestrained by Trump, business hiring too many or not hiring enough because of the uncertainty of the economic environment, shaky Trump first year and then getting better with time enough for reelection in 2020.
Clinton presidency is predictable, the economy will stay about the same, the 20 trillion debt will climb to maybe 25 t, the country will be poorer but the rich individuals will get richer, the middle stays about the same and minorities will lose the last few good jobs and a chance for better incomes (except the that enroll in Community Colleges without government incentives). Trump presidency is predictable to change everything, including the economy. The 20 trillion national debt will shrink but not by much, the country will be richer and rich individuals will get ever richer, the middle class will benefit if Trump succeed handling Mexico and China (50%-50% chance the first 2 years, higher chance the next 2 years of his presidency, fair economy for the planet if he gets another term and tame his temperament, but many pitfalls for an inexperienced strong focused man with good values.
Obama is leaving after 8 years as president. I think during his administration, the rich got richer (the stock market doubled), the middle class stayed about the same, the lower class got poorer, especially minorities, the U.S. economy got worse for our children and the world is in deep sh…t. During Hillary’s administration (if she gets in) the rich will retain their wealth, the middle class will retain their standard of living, the poor will get even poorer, the U.S. economy will survive OK while the world will suffer a lot from terrorism and socialism. During a Trump administration (he may win) the rich will get richer, the middle class will get a bit richer and the lower class will do better but not by much, the U.S. will be an incredible leader and the world will assert its independence from socialism and oppression.
“We’ve talked about oil,” T.Boone Pickens said, adding that “I think Trump knows what to do to improve the nation’s energy policy.”
T. Boone Pickens know about oil. The price at the pump is going up during the in-coming Trump administration (If you still think that another Clinton can win the White House you need to improve your decision-making process, the probability is <1%) . The cost of a barrel of oil will double in 2017. The big winners are Tesla and Solar City. This scenario is a one in a million opportunity for energy winners. You can get energy from wind, geysers, water flow, underground oil, coal, the sun and nuclear. You would think that it's complicated but it's not. All these sources are secondary and not sustainable in the long run. Coal and oil pollutes, the rest are week, except for sun energy relaying on technology to run things. Trump would love the cheap clean energy the sun produces and he will handle the special interests.
FTA: With the right president it would be good, with the wrong president it would be bad. David Autor, an MIT economist, concluded that US free trade with China lost almost 3 million US jobs in about 12 years, 9 of these years during the Bush administration and 3 during the Obama administration. He writes, “That wouldn’t have been terrible if the American workers who lost their jobs to the Chinese found American jobs in other sectors of the economy.” (Bloomberg Business, April 4, Page 7).
There are about 5000 community colleges in the United States training American workers in a 100,000 certified occupations. A signed order by president Bush or president Obama for financial assistance for counseling and retraining of these 3 million workers who lost their jobs would have provided certified occupations that the unemployed would love to do because they would fit and choose them and would pay more than the jobs they lost. The cost would be cheap, the economy would benefit, the treasury would save money and the free trade agreement would be praised. What did Bush and Obama do for the 3 million fired workers, especially Obama because many of the unemployed were black Americans who voted for him twice!
Enrolling in a community college, taking an occupational preference test, graduating with a certificate and getting a decent job is not a rocket science, yet neither Obama nor Bush thought of it. If Trump becomes president, do you think he will think of it? I doubt it. The solution is too simple and elegant for presidents to think about. I hope that I am wrong about Trump because I will vote for him as the lesser of 3 evils (Hillary, Sanders and Kasich) in case he is smarter about Trade agreements than Bush or Obama were. My God, life could be so much better with good incomes for minorities, why are we voting for dummy presidents twice? Next time you suffer for 8+8 years without decent and interesting work don’t blame your presidents. They never heard of community colleges! They were too busy hiring Harvard graduates to attend useless committees in Washington! No, no, I’m not cynical.